eFXnews

  • Jackson Hole: No Guidance On Next Hike; Limited USD Impact - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 15:38:22 +0000

    The key new information that the rates and FX markets will receive this week will be through the Fed's economic symposium in Jackson Hole. The theme of this year's symposium is "Designing Resilient 

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  • September 21: The Big Day For USD/JPY - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 14:31:32 +0000

    When the BoJ started Quantitative and Qualitative Easing (QQE), the Governor, Haruhiko Kuroda, said that the BoJ would achieve its 2% inflation target by doubling the size of its balance sheet. Currently the 

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  • Time To Sell GBP/USD; More Patience In USD/JPY - SocGen

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 13:35:48 +0000

    The sterling short-covering bounce ought to be nearing completion and short GBP/USD is a good place to start. The UK MPC has further easing ahead; the press, at least, sounds complacent about the economy,

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  • Jackson Hole: Yellen's Speech A Game Changer For USD - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 13:05:28 +0000

    In our view the Fed are trying to guide the market to increase pricing for a September hike, but rates markets remain reluctant to react and against this backdrop our FX Momentum model shows overall USD

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 04:42:40 +0000

    While the outlook for EUR is still deemed as bullish, the prolonged consolidation below last Thursday’s peak of 1.1365 has resulted in further loss of upward momentum. Unless there is a ‘clear and clean’ break

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  • USD/JPY: Make Or Break AT 100; AUD/JPY: En-Route To 80 - NAB

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 03:56:11 +0000

    AUD/JPY has been in a pronounced downtrend since late 2014. The move down was initially an AUD-specific affair as AUD/USD fell sharply from above 0.95, but thus far in 2016, it has been all on the 

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  • Gold: Triangle Consolidation: Add To Longs Above $1367 - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 03:07:44 +0000

    Gold has formed a triangle like consolidation since the July 11th high. Initial support comes in at 1,321. If this is truly a corrective pattern, it should go no lower than 1,302.85

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  • Preview: US: FHFA home prices, Existing Home Sales - Barclays

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 02:10:56 +0000

    Preview: US: FHFA home prices, Existing Home Sales - Barclays

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  • Risk-Reward Favors Fading NZD/USD Rally - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 24 Aug 2016 00:30:59 +0000

    In a speech Tuesday, Reserve Bank of New Zealand Governor Wheeler said the RBNZ don’t see need for rapid easing, dampending expectations for a cut at their next meeting on 22 September.

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  • Jackson Hole: Don't Expect Guidance On Timing Of Next Fed Hike - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 23:06:16 +0000

    On August 25-27, many key economists and policymakers will be gathering in a serene mountainside resort in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the annual economic symposium. The topic is "Designing Resilient 

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  • EUR/USD: En-Route To 1.16; USD/JPY: En-Route To 97 - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 20:02:31 +0000

    USD levels keeping us bearish: We continue to expect further 4% weakness in USD on the Fed's broad trade-weighted measure. The DXY has failed to break back into a trend channel formed since June,

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  • It's 'Very costly' For investors To Hedge Now And That's Bullish USD - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 17:57:06 +0000

    A remarkable hunt for yield has taken place over the last few years. Foreigners have fled negative rates and flocked to US fixed income to take advantage of positive rates. Currency hedging these purchases has 

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  • Jackson Hole: How Will The USD React To Fed's Yellen Speech? - Barclays

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 15:55:12 +0000

    Market attention will be squarely focused on US Fed Chair Yellen’s speech at the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium in Jackson Hole. We believe she may use the 

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  • Risk Of A More Aggressive ECB Tone On A Further EUR Upside - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 14:37:14 +0000

    The EUR has been well supported of late. This appears to be on the back of stable ECB rate expectations and reduced sensitivity to risk sentiment. Regardless of inflation expectations as measured by 5Y inflation

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  • Ranges More Likely In FX This Week Than Breakouts But If We Break...- SocGen

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 13:45:19 +0000

    The UK saw no news and a further short-covering rally for GBP/USD, which has continued overnight. The market expects an improvement in the August CBI industrial trends survey, but that won’t have much 

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  • USD Reaction To Jackson Hole Becomes Increasingly Binary - BNPP

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 12:57:09 +0000

    The failure of market prices to adjust more ahead of Friday’s Jackson Hole appearance by Chair Janet Yellen means her speech is becoming an increasingly binary event, with the USD likely to resume losses if she

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 04:28:24 +0000

    While stops for s/t bullish view is still intact at 1.1240, the recent price action is lackluster and the odds for extension to the 1.1430 high seen on the day of Brexit are not very high. EUR has to clear the recent 

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  • Preview: US New Home Sales (Jul) - SEB

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 03:23:25 +0000

    US New Home Sales - Tue Aug 23 - 10 AM ET

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  • GBP: Limited Impact From GDP; To Stabilize Around Current Levels - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 02:42:05 +0000

    The GBP has been stabilising for most of the past few trading days, mainly on the back of somewhat better than expected labour, inflation and retail sales data. Considering still elevated speculative short 

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  • EUR/USD: Large Triangle Still In Place: Make Or Break Levels - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Tue, 23 Aug 2016 00:40:24 +0000

    The base case scenario remains for EURUSD to eventually continue its long-term trend. As has been discussed in the past, the currency has formed a triangle like consolidation since the Mar. ’15 low. This is now getting closer to looking like a complete ABCDE.

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  • AUD Will Peak At 0.78 In Q3 Before Reversing Gradually Lower: How To Trade It? - ANZ

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 23:02:32 +0000

    We forecast that the AUD will peak at USD0.78 in Q3 2016. While our forecasts show a gradual depreciation from there, we expect that AUD will trade with some volatility in a USD0.70- 0.78 range before

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  • RBA On Hold For Rest Of The Year Unless AUD Appreciates Significantly - Barclays

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 21:09:31 +0000

    The July jobs report showed that total employment increased 26.2k and the unemployment rate declined to 5.7%, slightly better than expected. However, the report showed a stark difference between full-time 

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  • Can The Fed Pull Off A 'Dovish Hike' In September? - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 18:50:55 +0000

    Has the Fed bought ‘optionality’ on the September meeting? If buying ‘optionality’ involves raising the market expectations of a rate rise to the point where the Fed can if desired raise rates without

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  • EUR/USD and AUD/USD Vols Are The Most Attractive Macro-Hedges - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 17:33:53 +0000

    FX vols are currently oversold, with volatilities 1 to 2 standard deviations below average, as investors have put central bank policy divergence on hold for the foreseeable future. Furthermore, the anticipation

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  • USD Weakness Rests On 2 Pillars: Don't Enter Long Here - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 16:04:05 +0000

    USD weakness rests on two pillars. First, the carry trade pushing funds into higher-yielding environments. Second, real yield differentials working in favour of the EUR and the JPY, which could 

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  • USD/JPY: Make Or Break Point - SocGen

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 15:14:19 +0000

    USD/JPY currently presents a very asymmetric profile with the next move likely to be either a small bounce or a sharp break towards 95. We remain bullish in the medium 

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  • Don't Expect 'Big Changes' In Fed's Framework At Jackson Hole: 3 Reasons - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 14:31:35 +0000

    The Jackson Hole symposium is likely to feature a discussion of changes in the broader monetary policy framework, along the lines discussed by San Francisco Fed President Williams this week. However, we 

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  • USD: Durable Goods Just As Important As Yellen's Speech - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 14:04:37 +0000

    Despite somewhat confusing communication over the past week, we believe the Fed is trying to prevent tightening expectations from slipping further. We anticipate few surprises from Janet Yellen’s 

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  • USD To Trade Firm Into Jackson Hole; Staying Short AUD/USD - BNPP

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 13:26:53 +0000

    Combined with the comments last week from Presidents Dudley and Williams, the USD should trade with a firm tone heading into Jackson Hole. The US 2y yield has risen to a post-Brexit high of 77bp, which should support a break lower in AUDUSD below 0.76.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 04:37:01 +0000

    The weak closing last Friday indicates that the odds for a move to 1.1430 have diminished. Those who are long should look to book partial profit around current levels. A move below 1.1240 would indicate that 

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  • Risk/Reward Favors Bullish USD Positions Vs EUR, GBP And JPY - RBS

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 03:52:57 +0000

    The minutes from the July FOMC meeting were less hawkish than the market feared as the Committee was divided on the need for another interest rate hike. It’s important to remember that the decision to act

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  • All Eyes On Jackson Hole This Week: What To Expect? - Barclays

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 03:02:30 +0000

    This week monetary policymakers will convene in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s annual Economic Policy Symposium. This year the topic is 

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  • JPY: Focus On 20Y Auction And On Rhetoric From BoJ, FOMC 20Y Auction - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 02:12:31 +0000

    The fortunes of the JPY remain strongly tied to the outlooks for the BoJ and the FOMC. JGB auctions provide regular updates on investors’ thinking about the BoJ and have shown 20-30bp rises in the yields 

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  • EUR/JPY: The Case For An End Of Bear-Trend And A Reversal Higher - SocGen

    Date Published: Mon, 22 Aug 2016 01:33:52 +0000

    It’s a funny world when the strongest currencies in 2016 include the Yen, along with Real, Rouble and Rand. That the Yen is up 16% against the Euro is striking. The Euro’s underperformance can be 

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  • USD, EUR, JPY, GBP, CHF, AUD, NZD: Weekly Outlook - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Sun, 21 Aug 2016 23:29:59 +0000

    We believe USD positions will continue to unwind as weak US data put Fed rate hikes in doubt and the search for yield continues. We expect Yellen to reaffirm the view of the core of the FOMC that patience is 

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  • GBP: Fade The Bounce On Last Week's Positive Data Surprises - CIBC

    Date Published: Sun, 21 Aug 2016 22:17:26 +0000

    Throughout most of this year and much of 2015 as well, movements in sterling have been uncorrelated with surprises in economic data. With investors focused more on the Brexit polls in the lead up to the 

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  • IMM Report: Investors Added To Record GBP Shorts, Pared EUR Shorts, Piled On JPY Longs

    Date Published: Sun, 21 Aug 2016 20:40:44 +0000

    Data in this report cover up to Tuesday August 16 & were released Friday August 19.

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  • Week Ahead: USD Sell-Off To Come To An End - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Sat, 20 Aug 2016 17:23:51 +0000

    Fedspeak has whipsawed FX markets over the past week. The long risk/short-USD trade was initially boosted by comments from San Francisco Fed President Williams, only to be undone by subsequent 

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  • Rising Libor: Another Reason To Stay Bullish EUR & JPY - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 19 Aug 2016 20:21:33 +0000

    The higher LIBOR rate did not provide USD support, unlike other times when there have been relative rises in US private sector funding costs. There are a number of reasons:

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  • NZD/USD: Limitations To Uptrend: Levels & Targets - NAB

    Date Published: Fri, 19 Aug 2016 19:00:22 +0000

    Trend: Price has maintained a broad uptrend channel bias since mid-2015. A new one-year high in price 5 weeks ago tested major resistance at the uptrend channel top at 0.7330/40 (high 0.7325). The 

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