eFXnews

  • Week Ahead: Expiring 'Central Bank Puts': USD To Struggle Vs EUR & JPY - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Sat, 24 Sep 2016 15:31:33 +0000

    This past week the BoJ extended the life of its fading QE programme ‘on the cheap’ while the Fed remained cautious, assessing the need for further tightening. The markets took this as a risk-on/ 

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  • AUD/NZD: Monetary Policy Divergence: Targeting 1.07 Coming Weeks - ABN-AMRO

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 20:00:38 +0000

    The AUD has outperformed the NZD in the past week as financial markets are coming to terms that the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is likely to keep monetary policy unchanged this year, while another 25bp

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  • Are G10 Currencies Fairly Valued? - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 18:02:29 +0000

    Long-term fair value measures are suggesting that the USD is currently overvalued, particularly as productivity has declined in the US faster than in other countries.

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  • A 'Frustrating Year' In G10 FX, So What's Next 'Medium-Term'? - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 17:12:40 +0000

    FX market moves have often been counterintuitive this year, with seemingly very little to do with fundamentals. Bad news is still good news, but investors we talk to are very concerned about 

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  • USD/JPY: Target 104/104.45 If 100 Holds, Target 95/94.80 If 100 Breaks - SocGen

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 15:58:20 +0000

    In June, USD/JPY tested a multi-year descending trend and graphical levels at 100, which is also the 50% retracement of the 2011-2015 up move. Last month, it formed a hammer, stressing 100 as an important 

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  • USD/JPY: Upside Limited To 102 As Exporters Set To Buy More JPY Next Week - BTMU

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 15:01:13 +0000

    USD/JPY has pulled back to the 100-level, in line with our view, in the wake of the two monetary policy events at the Fed and BoJ this week. Monetary policies in the US and Japan have not diverged further.

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  • EUR: No Major Market Driver Next Week; Staying Long EUR/CAD - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 14:37:42 +0000

    Next week’s main focus will be on both the German ifo survey and Eurozone CPI.

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  • USD: Vulnerable S/T As Positioning Signals Shorts Have Room To Extend - BNPP

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 13:43:26 +0000

    The decision by the US Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) to leave policy rates unchanged at its September meeting (contrary to our expectation of a 25bp rate hike) has probably reinforced many market

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  • Bullish or bearish JPY? Where To Target? - ABN-AMRO

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 13:19:40 +0000

    Volatility in the yen has increased overnight, though levels are not extreme that would warrant currency intervention by the Ministry of Finance in Japan. Nevertheless, we expect strong verbal interventions from 

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 04:18:44 +0000

    The breach of 1.1240 yesterday has shifted the outlook for EUR to neutral. The lack of a sustained down-move was not surprising as we have indicated previously that any weakness is likely limited to 1.1100 (low

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  • BoJ Buys Time; Sticking To Our USD/JPY Forecast - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 02:48:29 +0000

    Yesterday's BoJ decision contained many changes to their framework but has not materially changed the near-term outlook.The BoJ's yield curve targeting still keeps NIRP in place 

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  • AUD/JPY: The Cross To Sell Next Week - ANZ

    Date Published: Fri, 23 Sep 2016 01:31:24 +0000

    AUD/JPY provides an attractive selling opportunity for the week ahead, advises ANZ in a note to clients today.

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  • 3 Reasons To Stay Bearish GBP - BNPP

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 23:09:08 +0000

    We expect the GBP to continue weakening for three main reasons.

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  • USD/JPY Weakness A 'Natural Phenomenon'; We Remain Structurally JPY Bulls - Credit Suisse

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 19:37:00 +0000

    We believe the main driver of the BoJ introduction of "Yield Curve Control" is to satisfy banks and insurers which complained about the impact of previous policy on their profitability. This

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  • EUR/USD: Staying Neutral; 1.11-1.14 Range Intact Near-Term - BTMU

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 18:28:00 +0000

    The US dollar has weakened modestly following the Fed’s decision to leave policy unchanged which has prompted some initial relief. Still the Fed has signalled strongly that it moving closer to resuming rate 

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  • USD/CAD: A Sell Into 1.31-1.32 With A Tight Stop Near 1.3250 - Westpac

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 16:57:06 +0000

    Around 1.31/1.32 USD/CAD is weaker than the recent 5wk lows in oil warrant. MXN has also been much weaker than oil prices would imply, but the same cannot be said of other petro currencies such as NOK 

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  • 'Divided Fed, Resolute BoJ': Considerable USD/JPY Upside Ahead - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 15:52:05 +0000

    The FOMC kept the funds rate unchanged, while signalling a near-term hike. Our US economists think the statement signals a clear bias to tighten in the relatively near future. The statement 

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  • Buy Gold, Sell NZD On Rallies - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 15:00:27 +0000

    At -0.46 (vs -0.36 on 15 September) our Risk Index moved further into risk seeking territory. The latest development was mostly reflected in falling cross market volatility.

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  • Fed's 'Hawkish Hold'; USD/JPY A Buying Opportunity With A Tight Stop At 99 - SocGen

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 14:10:49 +0000

    The FOMC voted 7-3 to keep rates on hold, deciding to wait for more data before raising rates. The chances of a single hike in 2016 coming in December have increased. The chances of rates getting above 

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  • 2 Reasons Why USD Fallout Is Limited Post-FOMC; Dips A Buying Opportunity - BNPP

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 13:38:47 +0000

    The FOMC voted to leave rates unchanged at 0.50%. Three FOMC voters dissented in favour of a hike: Mester, George and Rosengren, and 14 and 17 Fed members see at least 1 hike in 2016. The economic 

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  • If You Knew The US Election Result Today Would You Buy Or Sell USD? - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 04:39:20 +0000

    On Monday we have the first of three Trump- Clinton debates. Rare is the cut and thrust of these Presidential debates decisive. Kennedy-Nixon moments are few and far between. The ‘winner’ of the 

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 04:10:52 +0000

    EUR dipped to a low of 1.1119 yesterday but rebounded quickly. While the outlook is still deemed as bearish, the odds for further EUR weakness have diminished. From here, unless EUR can move and stay

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  • Preview: US: Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 03:34:26 +0000

    Preview: US: Initial Jobless Claims, Existing Home Sales - BofA Merrill

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  • Markets Post-FOMC: Views From Major Banks

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 02:34:32 +0000

    Although the more hawkish statement puts pressure on our Fed call, we stick to our view that the Fed will not hike this year, especially as we think the Fed may be too optimistic about the current economic 

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  • Sep RBNZ: We Retain Our Call For A Cut In November - Nomura

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 01:35:30 +0000

    As we expected, the RBNZ left its policy rate on hold at 2.00% while keeping its easing bias, noting that its “current projections and assumptions indicate that that further policy easing will be required to ensure that 

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  • Sep FOMC: We Stick To Our Call For No Fed Hikes This Year - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 22 Sep 2016 00:55:54 +0000

    The FOMC maintained the Fed funds target rate at 0.25%-0.50%, in line with consensus and market pricing, although a few analysts called for a rate hike. Looking at the rate decision, there were three 

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  • Sep FOMC: 2 Important Changes; What's Next For USD? - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 23:52:23 +0000

    The FOMC clearly signaled a hike before the end of the year in both the language and the dots. The Fed made two important changes to the statement.

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  • Sep FOMC: Positive For Risky Assets; Asia/Pacific Markets Attractive - ANZ

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 23:27:33 +0000

    The FOMC left interest rates unchanged as expected, but signalled that one increase in the Fed funds rate was likely by December.

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  • Sep FOMC: The Fed Paving The Way For December Hike - SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 21:48:12 +0000

    As expected the Fed decided to hold the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged at the policy meeting that concluded today. Disappointing economic data notwithstanding, the no-hike decision came

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  • Sep FOMC: Hawkish Signal For December - Nordea

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 21:05:43 +0000

    Today’s FOMC statement and the new dot plot reinforce our expectation that the Fed will hike rates again in December.

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  • Sep FOMC: The committee More Split Than It Has Been At Any Time In Our Memory - Barclays

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 19:32:11 +0000

    At its meeting today, the FOMC left the target range for the federal funds rate unchanged ¼ to ½ percent. In its view, at this level, the policy rate remains accommodative. Three members, Esther George, Loretta J

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  • Fed Yellen Press Conference: Watch Live

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 18:30:25 +0000

    FOMC Press Conference, September 21, 2016 - 2:30PM ET

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  • FOMC Decision: Quick Take: Fed To Hike In December - CIBC

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 18:25:12 +0000

    A string of weak data releases in the lead up to today's announcement likely removed any chance of a Fed rate hike. So it comes as no surprise then that the FOMC decided to keep interest rates unchanged at their 

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  • Trading The FOMC - Views From 15 Major Banks

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 16:27:28 +0000

    BNPP (out-of-consensus): FOMC To Announce A Dovish Hike; Mkt Short USD Into FOMC

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  • BoJ Doubles Down; USD/JPY En-Route To 108 In 3 Months - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 15:39:56 +0000

    Ahead of the July meeting, markets were expecting the BoJ to take aggressive action to reverse the rebound in the Yen since January. But in the event, the BoJ only raised the size of ETF purchases from 

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  • USD/JPY Post-BoJ: In A Range Of 100-105, Targeting 101 In 1 Month - Danske

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 15:02:30 +0000

    In line with our expectations, the Bank of Japan (BoJ) did not add new monetary easing today.

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  • BoJ Policy At An 'Impasse'; USD/JPY Downside Remains In Force - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 14:14:20 +0000

    Prior to the MPM, market participants generally argued that the yen would rise without an easing, and weaken only briefly and modestly in the event of an easing before turning back upward. Thus, they 

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  • USD/JPY Post-BoJ: A Hawkish Fed Is Risk Negative & USD/JPY Negative - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 13:35:06 +0000

    The BoJ decision was the main focus in Asia and it managed to surprise and lift investor sentiment. Following its comprehensive review, the BoJ made several changes to its policy set.

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  • GBP: Sub-1.30 Sell-Off To Extend Further; Staying Broadly Bearish - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 13:16:19 +0000

    The largest mover Tuesday was GBP, with Cable breaking 1.30 on the downside for the first time since mid-August.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Wed, 21 Sep 2016 04:49:17 +0000

    There is not much to add as EUR spiked to a high of 1.1213 yesterday but eased off quickly to end near the day’s low. The outlook is still bearish but as highlighted in recent updates, any decline is expected to 

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