eFXnews

  • EUR/USD: Trading The ECB - Views From 20 Major Banks

    Date Published: Thu, 08 Dec 2016 06:06:01 +0000

    Our European economists expect the ECB to deliver new easing measures, but also see a risk that the central bank will simultaneously point to the possibility of tapering asset purchases in 2017. This type of 

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Thu, 08 Dec 2016 04:39:33 +0000

    EUR traded in a relatively narrow range yesterday and there is no change to the view wherein we expect the ‘post-Italian referendum’ up-move to extend higher towards 1.0850. At this stage, a sustained move 

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  • USD/JPY: Targets For The 3rd-Cycle On L/T Charts - Citi

    Date Published: Thu, 08 Dec 2016 03:09:10 +0000

    In 1995 and 2011 the lows in USDJPY were put in on the back of a natural disaster in Japan (Kobe earthquake in 1995 and Fukushima disaster in 2011). This yielded a policy response from the Bank of Japan/Finance Ministry

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  • Traders Beware, China's FX Reserves Have The Biggest Drop Since January - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 08 Dec 2016 02:16:15 +0000

    Chinese FX reserves for November fell more than expected to USD3051.6bn – a decline of around USD69.1 bn. Reserves have not been lower since February 2011.

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  • USD: Beware Of The Risk Of USD 'Scarcity' In 2017 - SocGen

    Date Published: Thu, 08 Dec 2016 01:07:52 +0000

    Mind the large gap between expected spot performance and expected total return. This of course reflects the fact that running USD shorts most often (not vs AUD and USD) implies a cost of carry. For EUR/USD

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  • EUR: In A Very 'Precarious' Position Into ECB: Scenarios & Reactions - TD

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 21:37:09 +0000

    The range of potential ECB outcomes is larger as the FX response will depend not only on the actual decisions taken, but also on how the market interprets the policy intent behind them. The way the ECB 

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  • EUR Into ECB: Room For Disappointment Or/And Profit Taking - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 19:30:22 +0000

    Based on fundamentals, the ECB policy decision to continue its loose monetary policy stance should not be in doubt. As we noted, Euro area core inflation is as low as the last time the ECB extended QE. The latest

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  • EUR: Resilience Unlikely To Persist Regardless Of ECB Outcome - BTMU

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 18:12:03 +0000

    ECB President Draghi has a tricky task tomorrow with the economic data from the euro-zone indicating a pick-up in activity.Last week, the euro-zone unemployment rate fell to 9.8% - an

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  • CAD Post-BoC: 5 Reasons To Stay Bearish CAD Medium-Term - Nomura

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 17:16:07 +0000

    As expected, the Bank of Canada (BoC) kept it policy rate unchanged at 0.5%, reiterating that “the current stance of monetary policy remains appropriate”, suggesting a neutral policy stance.

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  • FX Valuation: Our 3 Metrics Point To Overvaluation In AUD, Undervaluation In JPY, EUR - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 16:50:25 +0000

    This report brings together our estimates of longer-term fundamental fair value for major EM and G10 exchange rates based on three alternative models.

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  • AUD: Not The Start Of New Downtrend Yet; Buy AUD/NZD Dips Below 1.04 - SocGen

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 15:50:56 +0000

    The biggest overnight mover is the Australian dollar, suffering from the release of weak Q3 GDP data on a day when there’s little other news. GDP fell 0.5%on the quarter; just the fifth quarterly fall in this 

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  • EUR/USD: Consolidation Before Resuming Decline: Where To Target? - ANZ

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 15:05:47 +0000

    The FX market moved quickly to distil President-elect Trump’s rhetoric of putting America first and doubling growth as expectations of an expansionary fiscal stance and higher US rates propelled the dollar 

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  • GBP/USD: Higher Highs & Higher Lows For 4th Session In A Row; What's Next? - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 14:33:02 +0000

    GBPUSD continues to record higher highs and higher lows on the day for the fourth session in a row.

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  • AUD: Underwhelmed By Weak GDP Print; We Stay Short Targeting 0.70 - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 13:56:00 +0000

    Australia’s GDP surprised economists by the largest margin in two years (actual - 0.5% QoQ, 1.8% YoY, consensus -0.1% QoQ, 2.2% YoY, previous +0.6% QoQ, 3.1% YoY), it was the first contraction in

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD, USD/JPY - UOB

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 05:47:32 +0000

    EUR/USD: Neutral: Room for extension higher to 1.0850. Despite the rather rapid pull-back from a high of 1.0785 yesterday, the undertone for EUR is 

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  • CAD: BoC Firmly On Hold On Wednesday - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 05:13:50 +0000

    Bank of Canada to be on hold today (Wed). Before the ECB on Thursday and the Fed and BoE next week, the Bank of Canada will have a say. Growth in Q3 was a bit stronger than the BoC expected (3.5 

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  • USD/JPY: Tech Signals & Levels To Know In 1H 2017 - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 03:32:48 +0000

    We think the uptrend will continue in 2017 and will look for additional signals such as a close through the weekly Ichimoku cloud and declining 100wk SMA. Measured move analysis from the November 2016 

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  • Preview: UK: Industrial Production - Barclays, SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 03:06:16 +0000

    Preview: UK: Industrial Production - Barclays, SEB

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  • GBP/USD: Stability To Be Short-Lived: Where To Target? - ANZ

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 02:29:39 +0000

    The UK November services PMI rose to its highest level since January (55.2 vs 54.5 in October), indicating that growth continues to hold up well so far in Q4. Services account for nearly 80% of UK GDP, so that 

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  • NZD: 3 Horse Race To Be NZ's Next PM; Impact On NZD - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Wed, 07 Dec 2016 01:26:22 +0000

    It is a three-horse race between Deputy PM and Finance Minister, Bill English, Health Minister Jonathan Coleman and Corrections Minister, Judith Collins to become NZ’s next PM.

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  • USD/JPY: The Case For Longs Into 2017: Rationale & Targets - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 23:29:23 +0000

    Morgan Stanley promoted long USD/JPY as one of its top trades for 2017. The following are the rationale, risk, and targets or this trade.

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  • CAD Into BoC: 3 Driving Factors; Where To Target - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 21:14:10 +0000

    We expect the Bank of Canada (BoC) to keep policy rates on hold at 0.50% at is meeting on Wednesday as is widely expected. In the absence of a Monetary Policy Report (MPR) or press 

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  • USD: Any N-Term Correction Temporary & Fundamentally Unjustified - BTMU

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 19:11:53 +0000

    The correction lower for the US dollar in the near-term is likely to prove only temporary with no clear fundamental justification for a sustained reversal of the stronger US dollar trend.

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  • CAD: BoC On Hold For Sometime But Risks Slightly To The Downside - Nomura

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 17:08:01 +0000

    The Bank of Canada (BoC) holds its next policy meeting on Wednesday. At the October meeting, Governor Poloz surprised market during the press conference by admitting  that “the Governing Council actively 

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  • CAD: The BoC Does Not React To Hypotheticals - Barclays

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 15:58:03 +0000

    The Bank of Canada will hold its last meeting of the year on Wednesday. We and consensus expect the BoC to keep the overnight rate unchanged at 0.5%.

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  • EUR: This Week's ECB Meeting Holds 2 Questions - Goldman Sachs

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 15:20:46 +0000

    For markets, this week's ECB holds two questions. First, will there be a formal taper decision. Second, if there is no formal announcement to this effect

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  • Where To Buy USD For An End-Year Spike? - SocGen

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 14:39:24 +0000

    Sterling and Euro are both in corrective mode, as they have been for over a week. After the initial push to new lows in EUR/USD when the Italian referendum result was announced, shortcovering accelerated as

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  • EUR/USD: Upside Unlikely To Extend Much Beyond 1.08 - BNPP

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 13:48:46 +0000

    The benign market reaction to the referendum result was in line with our expectations, but probably resulted in short-covering on positions taken on in anticipation of a more negative market impact.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 05:56:13 +0000

    We indicated yesterday that despite the strong downward pressure, we were reluctant to adopt a bearish stance as we view 1.0455/60 (low in 2015) as a very strong support and do not envisage a clear break 

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  • Trading ECB: Potential Scenarios And EUR/USD Response - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 04:15:17 +0000

    We believe the reaction of the EUR over the ECB meeting will ultimately depend on the probability of tapering in the next 12m. In particular, EURUSD will depend on the short 

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  • Preview: US: Trade Balance, Non-Farm Productivity, Factory Orders - Barclays, BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 03:45:20 +0000

    Preview: US: Trade Balance, Non-Farm Productivity, Factory Orders - Barclays, BofA Merrill

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  • AUD: Watching For A 'Significant Sticker Shock' This Week - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Tue, 06 Dec 2016 01:41:46 +0000

    While US rates continue to be a strong driver of the AUD, there will be some focus back on Australian rates this week with the RBA decision and the release of Q3 GDP data being the highlights.

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  • Top FX Views & Trades For 2017 - SocGen

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 22:01:05 +0000

    Nowhere will policy rotation be as evident as in the US in 2017. The Fed path will continue to re-price higher as incoming US President Donald Trump delivers fiscal stimulus. Rising rates and USD will make it

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  • USD/JPY: Buy At Low 110, Sell At Over 115 - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 19:32:44 +0000

    In the short term, we may need to be alert to the risk of a correction to this USD/JPY rapid rally. The cause could be any of several factors, such as questions over the viability of US policies or 

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  • Limited Impact From RBA & BoC Meetings This Week; Staying Short NZD/USD - BNPP

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 18:27:02 +0000

     
    New Zealand prime minister Key has announced he will not run for re-election in 2017. Key is seen as a market-friendly, stable figure, and NZDUSD weakened on the back of the news trading to a low just above 

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  • AUD, NZD: RBA On Hold; More Consolidation Ahead - Barclays

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 16:49:53 +0000

    AUD and NZD continue to consolidate, with positioning in both currencies having been reduced over recent weeks. External factors have driven direction, in particular the rally in commodity prices, the rise in

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  • CAD: Some Good News For CAD Ahead Of This Week's BoC - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 16:02:13 +0000

    The two key events over the past week have played out favourably for the CAD.

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  • EUR/USD: No Major Downside This Month; En-Route To Parity Ahead Of French Elections - SocGen

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 15:21:12 +0000

    The Italians voted ‘No’ in the constitutional reform referendum, and do so in resounding fashion, with a 59-41 outcome estimated. The polls had indicated a ‘No’ win but the scale (and turnout) leave no doubt 

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  • Citi Trade Of The Week: Buy NZD/USD

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 14:43:53 +0000

    Currency investors should consider buying NZD/USD this week, advises CitiFX in its weekly FX pick to clients.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Mon, 05 Dec 2016 05:27:26 +0000

    The short-term downward pressure has eased as EUR rebounded strongly and the major 1.0550 support was unthreatened. The bias is tilted to the upside from here but any up-move is unlikely to have enough 

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