eFXnews

  • 'The Great Le Pen Scare': How Could EUR, GBP React Afterwards? - Danske

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 21:26:06 +0000

    Although data from the euro area this week painted an upbeat picture, with strong manufacturing PMIs and German ifo readings, French government bonds and the EUR remain under pressure, as investors’ 

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  • Staying EUR Focused; Staying Short EUR/USD - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 18:28:00 +0000

    We expect the EUR to remain under selling pressure, with risks related to politics only explaining part of EUR weakness. It seems that within a globally inflating environment the d

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  • EUR/USD: Into 76.4% Fibo; EUR/AUD: RSI Negative Divergence - SocGen

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 16:53:22 +0000

    EUR/USD came up against the lower bound of a multi-decade trend near 1.0350/1.03 late last year. It also tested a descending channel limit on the daily chart around that time, and this led to an initial rebound, which faltered at the prominent resistance of 1.0810/60.

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  • USD: Still Cloudy; Countdown To Clarity - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 15:50:12 +0000

    USD bulls  had plenty to chew on, with several Fed speakers during the week, FOMC Minutes and comments from Treasury Secretary Mnuchin. The Minutes kept a March hike on the table, but also highlighted that most participants thought that "some time would likely be required for the outlook to become clearer."

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  • GBP/USD: Bullish N-Term Targeting 1.27 - BTMU

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 15:03:36 +0000

    Given our bias for the yen and the eurowe will be consistent and assume the same for the pound as well. We would also certainly argue that from a fundamental perspective there are better 

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  • JPY: Supported As Investors Starting To Use JPY To Hedge EUR Downside - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 14:33:14 +0000

    EU political risks have arrived and are giving the JPY a boost. Investors are starting to hedge downside in EUR and many are doing it via EUR/USD and EUR/JPY.

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  • Hesitant to Short EUR Into French Elections; Short USD/JPY Preferable - Nomura

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 14:03:39 +0000

    We have been doggedly bearish on the dollar since the start of the year, but we have been avoiding buying the euro for concerns that the coming elections in the Netherlands and particularly France would weigh on it. Recent weakness in the euro due in part to polls suggesting more support for Marine Le Pen, the anti-EU candidate, has justified this caution.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 05:09:21 +0000

    The downward pressure mentioned in recent updates is waning rapidly and the odds for an extension to 1.0450/55 have diminished. That said, only a move back above 1.0620 would indicate that the immediate

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  • EUR/USD: Oscillating Amid Counterintuitive Reaction To Data; Positioning Key Driver - ANZ

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 03:26:28 +0000

    The response in currency markets to data releases over the past week has been instructive in that it has been counterintuitive.

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  • USD: Timing Of Next Fed Rate Hike; Why We Think May - BNPP

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 01:37:02 +0000

    The latest FOMC minutes suggested that the Committee is nearing another rate hike, but it is not quite there yet, reducing the likelihood of a March hike, especially since “most” assessed that “some time” would be 

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  • Aggregate Signals For Benchmark Fair Value In G10 FX - TD

    Date Published: Fri, 24 Feb 2017 00:11:41 +0000

    The rhetoric on exchange rates has been one of the key drivers for the major currencies over the past few months, and we do not see signs of it ebbing soon.

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  • EUR/CHF: Flat N-Term Before Higher L-Term: Where To Target? - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 21:15:42 +0000

    Political uncertainty in Europe, coupled with rising geopolitical risks following the election of Donald Trump as the next US president, has supported CHF and put pressure on SNB to act to curb CHF appreciation pressure. Political uncertainty looks to be a key theme for FX markets again this year.

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  • GBP: Recovery Temporary And Unlikely To Last; How To Trade It? - SEB

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 19:15:50 +0000

    We are negative on the UK economy going forward although it did well in H2 last year. In particular household and capital spending seem vulnerable from the impact of growing political uncertainty created by the upcoming divorce from the EU. Retail sales have already showed signs of slowing and will likely continue to do so.

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  • EUR/USD: Bullish S/T Targeting 1.08; USD/JPY: Bearish S/T Targeting 111 - BTMU

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 17:55:16 +0000

    Again, like above, there are no obvious risk events to focus on in the week ahead and hence our inclination is to give the current momentum greater influence in the bias for the week ahead. We don’t really agree 

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  • USD: Fed's Hiking Intentions Not 'Soon' Enough For USD - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 16:33:06 +0000

    The USD and US rates moved lower after the FOMC minutes even though it would be difficult to argue that details of the January meeting discussions were particularly dovish. The usual range of hawkish and 

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  • Don't Sweat CHF; 3 Reasons To Stay Short EUR/CHF Targeting Parity - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 15:17:39 +0000

    Swiss sight deposit data suggested another sharp pick-up in intervention from the SNB last week, with an additional CHF 4.5bn of franc liquidity created after an increase of over 7bn in the previous fortnight.

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  • EUR: Twists & Turns In French Elections; EUR/USD Remains A S/T Sell - SocGen

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 14:33:02 +0000

    EUR/USD got a lift from Francois Bayrou’s decision to ally himself with Emmanuel Macron rather than stand in the French presidential contest himself.

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  • USD: Border Adjustments: How Much And How Fast Will USD Adjust? - BofA Merrill

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 14:01:56 +0000

    With a proposed cut in the US corporate income tax rate to 20%, in the longer term, the USD would need to appreciate by 25% to get relative prices of exports and imports back to previous levels, which has drawn much skepticism as a possibility.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 05:13:22 +0000

    EUR hit a lot of 1.0492 yesterday before rebounding quickly. We highlighted the patchy downward momentum and the price action was not surprising. The recovery indicates that the downward pressure

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  • Preview: Fed Speaks: Fed Lockhart - Barclays

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 04:00:25 +0000

    Preview: Fed Speaks: Fed Lockhart - Barclays

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  • FOMC Minutes: We Still See 2 Hikes In June And December - Danske

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 02:46:57 +0000

     
    As expected, we did not get much new from the FOMC minutes, as many FOMC members have already expressed their views since the meeting, not least Fed Chair Janet Yellen in connection with her semiannual hearing in Congress.

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  • AUD: A Buy On Dips; We Stay Long AUD/USD Targeting 0.78 - ANZ

    Date Published: Thu, 23 Feb 2017 01:52:54 +0000

    Significant AUD downside has started to look more like a tail risk than a central forecast. Commodity prices have risen more than anticipated, liquidity remains ample and volatility is expected to remain in check.

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  • USD: Choppy Price Action; More Scope For 2-Ways Risk - TD

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 23:44:33 +0000

    Choppy price action persists in the G10. This reflects the lack of clear trends leaving markets with little conviction or bias.

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  • FOMC Minutes: March Clearly On The Table But We Still See Next Hike In June - SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 21:33:12 +0000

    After the fed funds rate was raised by 25bps to 0.50-0.75% at the December meeting the FOMC voted unanimously to leave monetary policy unchanged at the first meeting of the year, a decision that was widely

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  • FOMC Minutes: Wording Still Consistent With A March Hike - CIBC

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 20:30:56 +0000

    It was a very plain statement, but there was a little more flavour in the minutes to hint at what policymakers need to see before raising rates again.

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  • EUR: To Stay Under Selling Pressure; We Stay Short - Morgan Stanley

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 19:22:09 +0000

    The EUR is set to stay underselling pressure. We are short EURUSD* and on the crosses* in our Pulse portfolio.

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  • USD: Trading The FOMC Minutes - Views From 10 Major Banks

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 16:52:03 +0000

    Morgan Stanley: Likelihood of Fed minutes providing USD support higher than the opposite outcome.

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  • USD/CAD: Higher N-Term, Before Lower: Where To Target? - Danske

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 15:30:27 +0000

    The Canadian economy’s close dependence on the US and oil industries, means the ‘loonie’ has been highly vulnerable to political events in terms of Trump’s presidency and OPEC’s oil supply freeze.

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  • GBP: Bullish Technical Signal Reinforces Upward Momentum - BTMU

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 14:46:08 +0000

    The pound has continued to strengthen during the Asian trading session despite further dovish comments yesterday from BoE policymakers.

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  • EUR: Political Risk Beginning To The Euro In Earnest - SocGen

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 14:13:48 +0000

    Political risk is beginning to the Euro in earnest, reflected by the Euro’s trade-weighted value reaching the lowest levels since the US Presidential election, and the OAT/Bund spread reaching the widest levels since then as well.

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  • Tech Targets: EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UOB

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 05:03:33 +0000

    While EUR weakened as expected, we highlighted yesterday that ‘any decline is expected to struggle to move below last week’s low at 1.0520’. The overnight low has been 1.0524 and the weak daily closing 

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  • Preview: EMU: German IFO - Barclays, SEB

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 03:32:15 +0000

    Preview: EMU: German IFO - Barclays, SEB

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  • EUR/USD: En-Route To Parity; USD/JPY En-Route To 128 - BNPP

    Date Published: Wed, 22 Feb 2017 01:46:06 +0000

    BNP Paribas has made some adjustments to its G10 FX forecasts in tandem with its economics team’s quarterly forecast revision process.

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  • EUR: Political Risks Loom Large But Lacking A Trigger For Now - Barclays

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 23:10:36 +0000

    In the absence of an evident catalyst and amid a light economic data calendar, we expect EURUSD to remain range-bound this week. 

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  • CAD: Retail Sales & CPI In Focus; We Stay Bullish USD/CAD - Credit Agricole

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 19:27:46 +0000

    The CAD continues to hold on to its status as the best performing G10 currency since the US elections. The meeting between PM Trudeau and President Trump reaffirmed Canada’s special status of a key US trading

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  • 3 Reasons Why ECB Tapering Won't Prevent Further EUR/USD Weakness - Deutsche Bank

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 17:12:38 +0000

    One of the pushbacks we get to our weaker euro view is that the ECB will signal tapering this year preventing EUR/USD weakness. We don’t agree.

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  • AUD, NZD: Overvalued: Targets On L/T Valuation Models - SEB

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 15:49:59 +0000

    At present, the commodity currencies are more overvalued than any of their G10 counterparts at 15% in trade weighted terms, almost as much as they were a couple of years ago 

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  • USD: FOMC Minutes Likely To Provide Another Hawkish Signal - BTMU

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 15:06:31 +0000

    The US dollar has strengthened modestly resulting in the EUR/USD rate falling back below technical support at around the 1.0600-level.

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  • Go Short EUR/GBP On A Break Below 0.8450 & Watch For GBP/USD Break Below 1.2350 - SocGen

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 14:32:06 +0000

     
    The ‘risk on, dollar strong’ picture is intact.  The move in US real yields is still being tracked pretty faithfully by DXY, so I’ve dragged out that chart again. DXTY really does need to break above 102 to avoid giving the impression of a head and shoulders formation-in-waiting.

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  • EUR: Staying Tactically Short For Next 2 Month Targeting A Retest Of 1.0340 - TD

    Date Published: Tue, 21 Feb 2017 14:03:53 +0000

    In Europe, the focus remains on the French elections. Indeed, the EUR is largely ignoring the pickup in Feb PMIs given the news that Le Pen continues to inch higher in the polls. This weekend saw an

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